Thursday 9 July 2015

Why are less and less people moving house in Derby?

During my school years, my parents seemed to move every other year, or it certainly seemed that way! In reality, looking back at the house moves, we actually moved three times before I left home. In fact I read on the internet that the average UK person moves 8 times in their life - or every 9 to 10 years. However, whilst my parents kept the removal van people in business whilst I was at school, from research I have carried out it shows things have changed considerably in Derby over the last few decades, and interestingly, the trend is getting worse ... for the removal van people at any rate!

In Derby, there are 104,777 properties. However, after we remove the 20,289 council houses, 17,504 privately rented houses and 1,213 houses where the occupants live rent free, that leaves us with 65,771 owned properties, be that 100% outright, with a mortgage or shared ownership. This means 62.8% of the properties in Derby are occupied by the owner (the national average is interestingly 64.2%) but the number of people who have sold and moved house in Derby, over the last 12 months, has only been 4,282. This means on these figures, the homeowners of Derby are only moving on average every 15.35 years.

There are a couple of reasons for this. Firstly, the cost of moving house has risen dramatically over the last twenty years and, secondly, with many remortgaging their properties in the mid 2000’s before the price crash of 2008, there is a reluctance or inability in a small minority of homeowners to finance a home sale/purchase, due to lack of equity. These are both factors leading to driving fewer moves by existing homeowners.

However, the big effect has been the change in house price inflation. Back in the 1970’s and 1980’s, house prices were doubling every 5 to 7 years. Even in Greater London, with its stratospheric property price increases over the last few years, it has taken 13 years (August 2012 to be exact) for property values to double to today’s levels.

This change to a relatively low inflation Derby property market - Derby property values not rising quickly - is significant because the long term consequences of sustained low house price growth is that it eats into mortgage debt more slowly than when property price inflation is higher. Derby home owners cannot rely on inflation to shrink their debt in real terms as much as they did in say the 1970’s and 1980’s.

So what does this all mean for Derby buy to let landlords? Well, for the same reasons existing Derby homeowners aren’t moving, less ‘twenty something’s’ are buying their first home as well. Derby youngsters may aspire to own their own home, but without the social pressure from their peers and parents to buy their first property as soon people reach their early 20’s, the memory of the 2008 housing crisis and the belief the hard times either aren't over or the worst is yet to come, current and would-be homeowners are warming to the idea of renting. I also believe UK society has changed, with the youngster’s wanting prosperity and happiness; but wanting it all now... instantly... today... without the sacrifice, work and patience that these things take. 

As a society, we now expect things instantly, and if it doesn’t come easy, doesn’t come quick, some youngsters ask if it is really worth the effort to save for the deposit?  Why go without holidays, the newest iPhone, socialising four times a week and the fancy satellite package for a couple of years, to save for that 5% deposit. Why should they if there is no longer a social stigma in renting or pressure to buy as there was say a generation ago?

Even though, in real terms, property prices are 5% cheaper than they were ten years ago (when adjusted by inflation), 16.7% of Derby properties are privately rented, nearly double it was twenty years ago. As a result, the demand for rental properties continues to grow from tenants, meaning those wishing to invest in the buy to let market, over the long term, might be on to a good thing?


10 comments:

  1. I hate moving and we moved our house recently in London. My dad's friend suggest my dad to hire Man and van Kilburn removal company for house moving. They move our objects very safely and do their job very well and also save our time and money.

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